Why We've Tried to Replace Developers Every Decade Since 1969

Here’s the paradox that makes this pattern particularly poignant. We’ve made extraordinary progress in software capabilities. The Apollo guidance computer had 4KB of RAM. Your smartphone has millions of times more computing power. We’ve built tools and frameworks that genuinely make many aspects of development easier.

Yet demand for software far exceeds our ability to create it. Every organization needs more software than it can build. The backlog of desired features and new initiatives grows faster than development teams can address it.

This tension—powerful tools yet insufficient capacity—keeps the dream alive. Business leaders look at the backlog and think, “There must be a way to go faster, to enable more people to contribute.” That’s a reasonable thought. It leads naturally to enthusiasm for any tool or approach that promises to democratize software creation.

The challenge is that software development isn’t primarily constrained by typing speed or syntax knowledge. It’s constrained by the thinking required to handle complexity well. Faster typing doesn’t help when you’re thinking through how to handle concurrent database updates. Simpler syntax doesn’t help when you’re reasoning about security implications.